非处方药销售数据能用于监测呼吸道疾病

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知世-金融领域资深作者

知名金融领域作者,从事金融超过十余年，在行业内有一定影响力。

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发布时间：2023-11-22 01:43:54 发布来源：未知文章点击：173

科技日报北京11月21日电 (记者张梦然)《自然通讯》21日发表了一项对英国超过20亿项交易的分析，表明非处方药的销售数据或可用于改善对呼吸道疾病死亡率的预测。这些发现表明，非...

本文标题非处方药销售数据能用于监测呼吸道疾病，作者：知世，本文有8400个文字，大小约为26KB，预计阅读时间21分钟，请您欣赏。知世金融网众多优秀文章，如果想要浏览更多相关文章，请使用网站导航的搜索进行搜索。本站虽然不乏优秀之作，但仅作为投资者学习参考。

　　科技日报北京11月21日电 (记者张梦然)《自然·通讯》21日发表了一项对英国超过20亿项交易的分析，表明非处方药的销售数据或可用于改善对呼吸道疾病死亡率的预测。这些发现表明，非处方药销售可能是人口健康的一个有用指标，可改进疾病监测，支持保健规划。

　　新冠疫情凸显出精准预报呼吸道感染的重要性。生成此类预测的一个困难是，许多轻症患者不会去看医生，他们的病况因而不会进入卫生系统。但患有轻症的人可能还是会因为有症状去购买非处方药，因此销售数据或可表明患病率的变化，而这是用其他办法很难检测到的。

　　英国诺丁汉大学研究团队此次使用非处方药的销售数据来预测2016年到2020年间呼吸道疾病(如流感和支气管炎)的每周死亡情况。销售数据来自英国商业街零售商的交易和会员卡。所有数据都被匿名汇总，然后提供给研究者，供他们分析销售量对下级地方政府的影响。

　　这项分析比较了两种模型的精确度，一种是基于机器学习的模型，其中包括了销售数据和其他常用呼吸道疾病指标(如人口社会统计数据和天气数据)，另一种模型是没有销售数据的模型。结果表明，纳入销售数据的预测更准确，尤其是在呼吸道疾病死亡率较高的时期。

　　要评估将销售数据纳入实时疾病监控系统中的实用性和可行性，还需要进一步研究。除了继续评估预测的准确性，还需要考虑到公共卫生部门获取商业销售数据的伦理影响。

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